Another proxy theatre of war opens
The mainstream commentariat’s assessment of the war between Hamas and Israel is cast in a narrow dimension of a ‘territorial war’.
While it is definitely that, and we are not here to take either side, our view is unequivocally that the wider perspective of this war’s role in the paradigm of the great power contest between USA and China will become increasingly obvious with the passage of time.
The newly opened Middle East theatre of war involving Israel and Hamas in Gaza will likely evolve to include more states such as Syria, Iran, and other regional states fronted by non-state actors such as Hezbollah in Lebanon, Hamas in Gaza, and Houthi rebels in Yemen. This war is likely to prolong alongside the Russia/Ukraine war.
These two theatres of war, and there could be more that open up in other regions (North Korea?), are designed to engage the US to satisfy a grand strategic objective of China, as discussed in the following passages.
The next two decade’s great power contest – China switches from being timid to assertive
China aims to be second to none as a global superpower. Please take note, as its goal couldn’t be clearer!
Over the past decades, it has acquired the necessary resources and means and seems quite driven. China is fuelled by the ambition to reach the pinnacle of global power, where it believes it rightfully belongs. It anticipates achieving this peak by the year 2050, coinciding with its centenary celebrations as the People’s Republic of China. By that time, China aspires to be the global hegemon, a singular superpower. In terms of the timeline, the anticipated deadline for this goal is only a couple of decades away.
Since the rise to power of President Xi Jinping in 2013, China has pivoted to a more assertive posture, breaking with Deng Xiaoping’s advice, which advocated discretion. There has been a clear evolution towards this assertiveness.
In the years preceding Xi Jinping’s ascent to high office, China benignly sought access to raw materials from around the world and low-barrier-entry to export markets. It offered a combination of development aid and infrastructure building in developing countries in exchange for access to local resources, supporting China’s nascent manufacturing sector in the 1980s and 1990s.
As China experienced greater economic success, it continued to invest and finance local and regional projects throughout the 2000s. It was in the 2010s that a more confident China emerged, particularly after Xi Jinping’s rise to power in 2013.
The assertiveness initiative is shaping up to overshadow all other objectives that China has.
The 2010s marked the end of a low-profile China and heralded a new era of “imperial ambition” with specific benchmarks set for 2025 and 2050.
The assertiveness initiative was demonstrated by the flurry of China’s diplomatic activity in recent years. A closer look at the flurry of China’s activities allows all its objectives to be classified into three categories: trade (economical), the military and navy (security), and the future battlefield of cyberspace (cybersecurity).
Based on Xi Jinping’s speech during the 19th National Congress in 2017, the year 2050 appears to be the target for ending the co-hegemonic status (i.e., global power sharing with the US). From this goal, one can infer that the intervening years from 2020 to 2050 will be characterized by co-hegemony or a cold/hot war—a period of transition. Setting aside the question of the plausibility of this vision being realized, the mere articulation of this vision lays the groundwork for a prolonged period of active contention between the two great powers. This is our primary argument.
China benefits from US engaging in separate wars to support Israel and Ukraine
The Chinese military principles emphasize avoiding head-on battles against a powerful adversary. Instead, with an element of surprise, they advocate for being proactive and offensive in exploiting enemy vulnerabilities through proxy wars initiated by countries aligned with China.
China maintains strong ties with Russia, which is indirectly engaging the US in the Ukraine war. Similarly, China has deep economic ties with Iran and is estimated to share defence systems. Iran, in turn, financially and militarily supports non-state actors such as Hamas and Hezbollah to engage Israel and the US in conflict.
Moreover, research by the RAND Corporation, a global public policy research organization, suggests that these war theatres are utilized by both the US and China to test their latest military technology, hardware, and operational concepts, potentially preparing for a direct confrontation between the two powers.
Another primary reason for China indirectly engaging its formidable adversary (the US) in an increasing number of proxy wars is to elevate US’ cost of direct conflict to economically prohibitive levels. This cost can also manifest in terms of mounting casualties in proxy wars. The goal is to inflict significant pain on the US solely through these proxy wars. By keeping the US distracted, mired, exhausted, and/or financially drained, the intent is to render it incapable of focusing on containing China’s rise to global hegemon status and its anticipated emergence as a true superpower by 2050.
Prominent Chinese foreign policy analyst like Wang Jisi, dean of the Peking University School of International Studies, has argued that the U.S. war with Iraq benefited China because “It is beneficial for our external environment to have the United States militarily and diplomatically deeply sunk in the Mideast to the extent that it can hardly extricate itself.”
Similarly, Renmin University professor Shi Yinhong has recently argued that “Washington’s deeper involvement in the Middle East is favorable to Beijing, reducing Washington’s ability to place focused attention and pressure on China”.
The rising cost of war shows up in rising bond yields
Even before factoring in the latest costs of the escalating Israeli conflict, the US budget is deeply in deficit. That is, tax revenues are declining due to a weakening economy, the interest bill is soaring due to sharply higher interest rates, and the amount of debt the US government continues to accumulate is staggering.