The XJO is expected to edge lower on open this morning following a pullback in the U.S overnight.

Our market remains overbought in the short-term, and a move like last night should lead to selling, however at this stage our market looks resilient. This may be due to a combination of flat U.S futures, and their market bouncing intraday from key support.

We should test 7,850 key support today, which was also the recent all-time high we broke last week. This is also roughly where the uptrend line comes in. Whether we continue lower will likely come down to how the U.S reacts to their own key support and uptrend line tonight.

The U.S also remains overbought in almost every metric, and has been due for a decent pullback or correction for weeks now. The fact we have not seen a pullback means we must reluctantly remain cautiously bullish, rather than continuing to assume a pullback is imminent – even though logically it should be.

US Markets

US shares closed lower overnight, with selling across each of the three major indices. This came after mostly stronger than expected US economic data, which may suggest rate cuts will be pushed out in time. There were also several Federal Reserve members speaking overnight, with these FED members suggesting that three rate cuts were still possible this year. Overall US markets do look overbought but they are maintaining their uptrends and upwards movements for the time being.

Three of the eleven sector groups of the SP500 closed higher overnight with Energy the only significant gainer after a jump in oil prices. Healthcare, Discretionary, and Real Estate saw the most selling.

Technically, the SP500 pulled back to the first support level and roughly the longer-term uptrend line around 5,180 – 5,200. We will need to see if these levels hold or break. Should we see a bounce from here, we could see the index return to the all-time high resistance level around 5,260. Should the SP500 break below support, the first downside target would likely be the 5,100 point level.

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