Our XJO is expected to open moderately higher this morning, following buying in US markets overnight, as well as with a push up in key commodities such as iron ore, copper, and gold.
Our market has been grinding lower for most of this week following the RBA rate rise on Tuesday, as well as the weaker than expected GDP reading on Wednesday. Overall things aren’t really looking good for the Australian economy, with inflation remaining high, yet other economic measurables coming in weak. Despite this, strength in overseas markets, and some key support levels for our XJO look to be preventing our market from falling further for now.
We are holding above the 7,080 key support level, with a break below this level likely suggesting a move down to roughly 7,000. However, should we hold this level and get a bullish signal today, we could easily see some modest buying return to push our market back to roughly 7,200, where the medium-term downtrend line sits.
US Markets
US shares closed higher overnight, with each of the three major indices finishing in the green. This was despite a rise in jobless claims overnight, which suggests that the US economy is slowing. Overall a reasonable degree of optimism remains in US markets, which is helping to drive prices higher; US market commentators have also been mostly bullish recently, which is encouraging buying. However, with the inflation and interest rate battle still being waged, and a recession expected later this year, its hard to say how long this optimism will last for. Next week we will see the US Federal Reserve decide on interest rates at their June meeting, with no change expected this time around.
Seven of the eleven sector groups of the SP500 closed higher overnight, with Discretionary, Technology, and Staples stocks the strongest performers. Real Estate and Energy stocks saw the most selling.
Despite the overnight buying, the SP500 closed below the major 4,300 – 4,320 resistance level. The index has now tested 4,300 a few times and we will have to see a close above this level before a bullish continuation looks likely.
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Sam Green is the Portfolio Manager at Emerald Financial, whilst also being an Equities and Derivatives expert for his clients at TradersCircle.
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