The XJO is expected to edge higher on open this morning following a U.S which managed to finish in all-time highs. Their market is still arguably trading in a tight range and so our market is likely skeptical of their rise.

Yesterday we held towards the day’s lows into the close. We continue to grind along the 50 and 100 day MAs, as we track sideward, incisive, waiting for a stronger lead from overseas.

7,700 remains key support, and 7,550 to 7,800 remains key resistance.

This morning we have retail sales numbers at 11:30 AEST. It is expected to come in slightly stronger at 0.3% than the last reading of 0.1%. Regardless, it shows that consumers are tightening their belts. Tonight, Powell will speak, which may be what the U.S market needs to break higher if he supports the rhetoric of lower rates.

US Markets

US shares closed higher overnight, with the SP500 closing above 5,500 for the first time ever. There was a lack of major US news and events again, though a report did show more jobs were created than expected in the US economy, which seemed to have little effect on share prices. The main event for US economic data this week will be Friday’s jobs report, with unemployment expected to hold steady at 4%. US shares have had pretty much everything they could want, but prices are very overextended. It is likely we will continue to see gains, but at a much slower pace than at the start of the year.

Nine of the eleven sector groups of the SP500 closed higher overnight, with Discretionary and Financials stocks the strongest performers. Most other sectors saw slight gains, with no sectors seeing notable selling.

Technically, the SP500 is on an overall longer-term uptrend and it closed just above the resistance at 5,500 overnight. This suggests the buying should continue and its hard to say where it will stall. Should we see selling, the previous resistance at 5,375 is now likely to act as support; should it break, we are likely to see further selling.

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